Uncertainty quantification of engineering simulations

This article featured in the October 2021 issue of the 2021 NAFEMS World Congress edition of BENCHMARK

Engineering simulation software codes tend to be deterministic.The black-box that takes the simulation model inputs to the outputs produces the exact same output values for a given set of inputs. This is in contrast to the real world where it is expected that replicate tests will yield different results, i.e., there is uncertainty in the outputs (and the inputs). Since we perform engineering simulation as a cheaper and/or more feasible analogue for real world test and experiment we’d like simulation results to be reflective of the uncertainty that exists in the real world. This is the domain of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for engineering simulations and allows for decision making based upon analyses that more accurately capture real-world behavior, uncertainty and all.