Investing in Simulation Credibility

How can managers with little training in science or engineering understand why verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification add value to simulation credibility? How can they understand the technical concepts? When managers and decision makers use simulation results, they should understand the confidence level of the results, as well as the potential risks associated with any weaknesses or limitations. Later this year, NAFEMS will publish “Simulation Verification and Validation for Managers”, which will aim to address this very point. This article, based on an extract from the book, introduces the risks and trade-offs of using simulation in decision making and discusses how perceptions of risk can differ between business organizations and regulatory agencies. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) should be viewed as a trade-off between increased confidence in simulation results and increased risk when using simulation results with unknown or poorly understood reliability. Why should managers invest further in simulation credibility even if their organization is already reaping the benefits of simulation?