Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification and Industry Challenges

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Overview

Uncertainty is an inescapable reality that can be found in nearly all types of engineering analyses. It arises from sources like measurement inaccuracies, material properties, boundary and initial conditions, and modeling approximations. Moreover, with the increasing use of simulation models throughout industry, it has become vital to include Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in engineering analysis. This webinar will introduce stochastic methods and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) tools, discuss industry challenges of implementing them, and then use case studies to demonstrate the benefits of going beyond deterministic analysis.

The competitive benefits of UQ include reduced development time and cost, improved designs, better understanding of risk, and quantifiable confidence in analysis results and engineering decisions. Unfortunately, there are significant obstacles and technical challenges which prevent organizations from utilizing UQ methods and techniques in their engineering practice. This webinar will discuss past and present strategies for addressing these challenges, making it possible to use UQ to enhance engineering processes with fewer resources and in more situations.

The attendees for this webinar would be engineers, program managers, and data scientists who want to gain an understanding of how Uncertainty Quantification can maximize insight, improve design robustness, and increase time and resource efficiency.

Agenda

• Welcome & Introduction:
• Mr. Andrew Wood, NAFEMS
• A Message from the Stochastics Working Group
• Dr. Alexander Karl (Rolls-Royce), Stochastics Working Group Chairman
• Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification and Industry Challenges
• Dr. Mark Andrews (SmartUQ), Stochastics Working Group Member
• Q&A and Discussion
• Close

About the Speaker

Dr. Mark J. Andrews is SmartUQ’s UQ Technology Steward where he is responsible for advising SmartUQ on the industry’s uncertainty quantification needs and challenges. He is SmartUQ’s principal investigator for the Probabilistic Secondary Flow and Heat Transfer Model project as part of the Probabilistic Analysis Consortium for Engines (PACE). PACE is developed and managed by the Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) under contract with the Air Force Research Laboratory (ARFL) and engine OEMs to develop, apply, and validate advanced probabilistic methods that quantify uncertainty, achieving improvements in engine performance, cost, and reliability. Prior to working at SmartUQ, Dr. Andrews spent 15 years at Caterpillar where he worked as a Senior Research Engineer, Engineering Specialist in Corporate Reliability, and Senior Engineering Specialist in Virtual Product Development. He has a Ph.D. and M.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the New Mexico State University, as well as a BS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of New Mexico. Dr. Andrews has been a member of ASME for over 20 years and is a member of the Probabilistic Methods, a subcommittee of Structures & Dynamics committee for ASME Turbo. He has also been a long-standing member of SAE and American Ceramic Society (ACERS).